This article is a snapshot from 2020, written while the pandemic's first wave was reshaping world trade. Figures are as reported at that time.
Trade runs on movement
The travel industry is a backbone of globalisation, carrying wholesale, retail, import and export business with it. When international travel was banned on 31 March 2020, both essential and non-essential goods saw shortages, and industries worldwide strained to bear the consequences.
Quarantine and social distancing rules left many industry stakeholders stranded: labour shortages disrupted supply chains and sales declined. The industries in crisis included technology, automobiles, everyday consumer goods and pharmaceuticals. Even as travel restrictions gradually relaxed, flights operated at a fraction of capacity, affecting consumers, airlines and the wider travel economy, with continuing uncertainty about how long the disruption would last.
The early numbers for India
India saw an overall dip of about 16 percent in trade between 1 March and 19 March 2020, and exports declined by 8.2 percent in the same first quarter (source: Times of India). India trades with a long list of partner countries, exporting spices, nuts, fruits, vegetables and much more.
Three categories of goods
- Essential goods: the necessities of daily life, mostly food items, whether raw, packed or frozen, along with medical and pharmaceutical products and equipment.
- Non-essential goods: goods one can survive without: chemical products, textiles, engineered goods, minerals and the like.
- Luxury goods: status goods such as precious metals and stones, gold, silver, gems and premium automobiles.
How Indian exports moved (as of June 2020)
The change was already visible in trade with the USA, then India's largest export partner. India's overall export decline had narrowed to 1.13 percent by June. Category by category, the year-on-year change looked like this:
| Product | Change in percentage rate |
|---|---|
| Iron ore | 63.11 |
| Oil seeds | 50.48 |
| Rice | 32.72 |
| Oil meals | 22.92 |
| Other cereals | 19.35 |
| Organic and inorganic chemicals | 19.06 |
| Processed foods | 13.8 |
| Fruits and vegetables | 11.01 |
| Drugs and pharma products | 9.89 |
| Coal and other ores | -1.13 |
Source: Statista, June 2020.
Agricultural staples, rice among them, proved to be some of the most resilient categories through the disruption, a pattern that shaped how we and many exporters planned the years that followed. If you have questions about any of this, feel free to contact us.